American inflatable module, Genesis-2 and Soviet military satellite “Kosmos-1300” may encounter in earth orbit on 18 September 2019.
The probability of such a catastrophe, which could happen in the coming hours, the us military is estimated very high – nearly six percent.
According to the company-the developer of the module Bigelow Aerospace Genesis-2 put into orbit in 2007 when folded and then filled the air. The module worked in space two and a half years. The company planned the creation of these transformed modules, a commercial space station. And the Soviet satellite “Cosmos-1300” launched in 1981. According to open sources, this is the satellite electronic reconnaissance “Tselina-D”.
“The U.S. air force has notified us about 5,6% of possibility that after 15 hours of Genesis-2 will collide with a defunct Soviet satellite “Kosmos-1300,” – said in Twitter, the company Bigelow Aerospace. Thus, a collision can happen in the next hour.
Today, we were notified by the US Air Force that there is a 5.6% chance that Genesis II will collide with dead Russian satellite Cosmos 1300 in 15 hours. Although this is a relatively low probability, it brings to light that low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly more littered. pic.twitter.com/l6McbDgRNo
— Bigelow Aerospace (@BigelowSpace) September 17, 2019.
In Bigelow Aerospace also noted that such a threat once again recalls that low earth orbit is becoming increasingly littered.
In 2009, the Russian device “Space-2251” and the American Iridium 33 collided in orbit. Other working satellites had to Dodge the numerous debris resulting from the incident.
In orbit around the Earth flying more than 7,000 tons of debris
In earth orbit since 1961, there have been about 250 of the destruction of space objects (active and inactive satellites, spent stages of carrier rockets and boosters). The destruction of these space objects occurred either as a result of their explosions, or after colliding with other objects.
A leader in the pollution of near-earth space debris is the United States. On the second place by the number of garbage Russia. And closes the three leaders of China.
These three countries account for 93% of all space debris. Every year the total increases by 4%. Every year a mass of debris in orbit increases by about 100 tons, or about 2%.
Most space debris is formed due to the destruction and collision orbiters. In addition, orbit clog up the exhaust stage and boosters of boosters already inactive satellites, fragments, loose launches. According for 2017 in earth orbit, there were about 18 thousand objects larger than 10 centimeters, including satellites 1200, 750 thousand “flying bullets” (the size of each “bullet” about an inch) and about 150 million fragments smaller than one millimeter.
The debris sooner or later slowed, falling and mostly burn up in the atmosphere, the geostationary orbit, they can spin forever, and collisions with space debris can lead to dangerous consequences.
The US even has six satellites, tracking space debris, while Russia does not have any such device.
Therefore, in may 2019, the state Corporation Roscosmos decided to form the head of the scientific Institute, the Institute center for monitoring space debris. Together with the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) there is a national project dedicated to space activities.